For two years the AI investment story was told mostly in round numbers and valuations. This week it moved into documents that carry legal liability. Anthropic filed its S-1 registration statement on 26 October, applying to list on Nasdaq under the ticker “ANT”. The filing reports revenue of $16.29 billion for the six months to 30 June 2026, against $1.16 billion a year earlier, and $4.59 billion for all of 2025. [1][2]
The same filing shows a net loss of about $80.7 billion for the half-year. CNBC notes that roughly $72 billion of that comes from accounting charges on convertible notes whose value rose with the company’s valuation, so it is not cash burned on compute. Compute and infrastructure still cost $8.9 billion in the period. The filing does not yet state a price range or a valuation. [1][2]
In Spain, Xataka read the prospectus from the other side. Citing a Wall Street Journal reconstruction, it argues that the filing implies an addressable market of more than $40 trillion a year, roughly the payroll of knowledge workers, and that the figure is derived rather than printed in the document. That is commentary, but it names the bet investors are being asked to price. [3]
OpenAI’s financing points the other way. TechCrunch, summarising the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal, reports that OpenAI cut the target for its new round from $30 billion to $20 billion, led by UAE investors, with about $11 billion secured so far and a “tepid” response from some large investors. These are press reports; OpenAI had not commented when TechCrunch published. [4]
Our reading: the hype has not disappeared, but it now has an audit trail. Revenue growth in a registration statement is a stronger signal than a valuation leak, and a smaller round is a stronger signal than a denial. Prediction markets below show how traders currently price the two listings; they are bets, not forecasts.