What could change in the next few years?
Most likely the models, their price, how they are used and the rules will all change at the same time.
What is it?
Over the coming years models, their prices, the ways they are used and the rules will all change at once. Reliable prediction is hard, but we can follow measurable indicators: performance on independent tests, price, energy use, business adoption and regulation.
An everyday example
A task that cost a few euros per request two years ago now costs a few cents, which opens up new uses.
Why does it matter?
Following actual indicators instead of predictions makes it easier to prepare for change at work, at school and in everyday life.
A common misconception
That models will only keep getting bigger, or that a demonstration of a new ability means everyone will soon be using it.
In more detail
What can we keep an eye on?
The quality of agents, multimodal systems, local models, checking tools and specialised uses.
Will models just keep getting bigger?
Not necessarily. Progress also includes more efficient training, smaller models, new designs and better use of tools.
What matters more than a demo?
How it works in real conditions: reproducibility, costs, errors, safety and benefit to people.
How do you avoid predicting off the top of your head?
Separate measurement, explanation, expert assessment and speculation. Note the date next to every claim.
Remember: Be curious about progress and sceptical of big promises.
Reliable sources
Last reviewed 1 November 2026. An explainer, not professional, legal or medical advice. For rules and figures that change, check the official version.